Expected Trophies in Soccer

Like last week's blog, we're looking at expected trophies.  This time, instead of Kansas City, we're looking at Major League Soccer.

Each year, we assign 1/league + 1/league + 1/country as xT - expected trophies.  (For Canada, 2008-2010, 3; 2011-current 4).  So at the start of the league, for 10 US teams, xT is 0.3/yr.  At current, xT for an American team is 0.159; and a Canadian team's xT is 0.350

Then, for each trophy (MLS Cup, Supporter's Shield, Lamar Hunt US Open Cup, Canadian Championship), if the team won one, add 1 to Trophies.  (Also adding 1 for the continental and the intercontinental for DC United in 1998, because being the best team in the Americas is worth something)

Chart 1 shows how the 10 original MLS teams fared.

  DC and LA are on top.  DC sits at 7.15 T>xT, and LA is right behind at 6.15.  SKC is 3rd among the originals at 1.15, and Columbus Crew sits just above 0 at 0.15.
  Below 0 are San Jose (on hiatus for two years), at -0.36.  FCD has jumped with a great 2016, but is still at -1.85.  Red Bull New York had the longest run without silverware, but now sits at -2.85.  New England and Colorado, each with only 1 trophy, are at the bottom, right about -3.85.
  The Tampa Bay Mutiny won 1 Supporters' Shield in their six years, but the team ceased to exist after the 2001 season.

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Chart 2 shows how the best 6 teams by T>xT.

  Again, DC and LA are 1-2.
  Seattle Sounders opened with three straight Open Cup wins, and won three more trophies to put them at a very respectable 4.61.
  Chicago Fire had a great first decade, peaking at +3.6 ten years ago, but haven't won a title since.  They're still 1.75 T>xT
  The best team in Canada is Toronto FC.  They will have a higher xT due to a 1/4 chance of winning the Canadian Championship.  Their five Canadian championships put them at 1.32 T>xT.
  Sporting KC is 6th on the chart, and the only team in the top 6 to ever fall to -1 T>xT (the year before the 2000 MLS Cup/Shield double; and the year before their 2012 US Open Cup)