Saturday, November 4, 2017

Replacing Winner-Take-All

So, using Wikipedia's pages for the results for all the presidential elections since Dewey Defeats Truman (1948), I ran an experiment.

Experiment:  For each state and the District of Columbia,
Electoral Votes are assigned using Largest Remainder Method, () dividing total votes per candidate by electoral votes; then rounding up or down depending on the remainder.

If the resulting electoral votes don't reach a majority...
  Using 12th Amendment...
  Each state gets 1 vote, voted if the state doesn't have a deadlock where D's = R's.
  If there's a Southern Democrat that the state voted for, the Southern Democrat gets the vote.

Result Summary
1) Any candidate who got 50% of the PV won the Proportional-EV, but never received more than 334 EV.
2) John Kennedy got 49.72% of the PV, and won with 270 P-EV (269 needed to win in 1960)
3) Any candidate who got less than 49.6% of the PV failed to win the Proportional-EV, and it went to the Congress.



YearWinnerEVPVP-EV LeaderP-EV ScoreHouseSenate
1948Truman3030.4955Truman258-226Truman 22Barkley 54
1952Eisenhower4420.5518Eisenhower291-240
1956Eisenhower4570.5737Eisenhower295-230
1960Kennedy3030.4972Kennedy270-262
1964Johnson4860.6105Johnson320-215
1968Nixon3010.4342Nixon235-225Humphrey 22Muskie 57
1972Nixon5200.6067Nixon334-203
1976Carter2970.5008Carter273-263
1980Reagan4890.5075Reagan276-224
1984Reagan5250.5877Reagan320-218
1988Bush4260.5377Bush290-248
1992Clinton3700.4301Clinton236-197Clinton 30Gore 57
1996Clinton3790.4923Clinton267-224Dole 28Kemp 55
2000Bush2710.4787Bush264-261Bush 2850-50
2004Bush2860.5073Bush280-258
2008Obama3650.5293Obama289-248
2012Obama3320.5106Obama276-260
2016Trump3040.4598Clinton261-259Trump 32Pence 52


1948 Truman, 8 PEV short, only wins 22 states in 1948.  If Truman is unable to get Thurmond to back him with his 3 states, then his VP Barkley becomes President with 54/96 Senate.  (Senate only gets to pick between 2)
    Possible VP for PREZ

1968 Nixon, 35 PEV short (thanks George Wallace, who goes from 46 EV to 78 PEV), only wins 18 states in 1968.  Even if Wallace's 6 states back Nixon, Nixon still only gets to 24.  If Wallace goes with Humphrey, who had 22 states, Humphrey gets the White House.  Otherwise, Muskie, Humphrey's VP candidate, becomes president with the backing of 57 Senators.
    Possible SWITCH, Possible SWITCH VP for PREZ

1992 Clinton, 34 PEV short (thanks Ross Perot, who goes from 0 EV to 105! PEV), wins in the House with 30 states.  VP Gore advances with 57 Senators.

1996 Clinton, 3 PEV short (thanks Ross Perot, who goes from 0 EV to 46 PEV) loses in the House - Dole and the Republican Revolution have 28 states and 55 Senators, giving Dole/Kemp the win.
    SWITCH

2000 Bush43, 6 PEV short (still close, Bush43 264 from 271; Gore 261 from 267; Nader! 13 PEV from 0), advances with 28 states in the House.  VP Cheney and Lieberman sit at an impasse at 50-50.  Unsure whether Gore would be able to cast tie-breaking vote; or whether Jeffords, who would later defect in mid 2001 would switch for Lieberman.
    Possible SWITCH VP

2016 Trump, 11 PEV short - and Clinton 9 PEV short.  Trump has 32 states, and Pence has 52 senators, putting the current administration in.

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